Lenny Del Genio MLB Baseball Handicapping Article: Bad Bullpens = Bad Beats

MLB: Bad Bullpens = Bad Beats
by Lenny Del Genio

Handicapping baseball used to be so simple. Take the team with the better starting pitching and offense. There you go. You could make a fortune off that simple formula. However, over the last decade, two little words have mired it and changed the way we all evaluate Major League Baseball – relief pitching.

No matter how good your starting pitcher is, you need quality arms in the bullpen to seal the deal. This is why Erik Bedard was so happy to leave Baltimore for Seattle in the offseason. Bedard, who went 13-5 for a terrible 69-93 Orioles team a year ago before getting injured, probably could have been a 20-game winner for any team with a decent bullpen. Of course, the Mariners are currently experiencing their own bullpen issues.

It took me all of one week to deem one reliever my least favorite MLB player this year. That would be Trevor Hoffman of the San Diego Padres. The all-time saves leader and a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer, Hoffman clearly has lost his stuff and is off to a very shaky start. He’s already blown two games in the first week alone, including my 1st Oddsmakers Mismatch of the season, a 3-2 come from ahead loss to the Dodgers on Sunday.

Padres relievers opened the 2007 season with 29 consecutive scoreless innings, the longest season-opening scoreless streak by a bullpen in the modern era. As of 4/8 -- a span of 22 2/3 innings and nine games -- Padres relievers had posted a 6.75 ERA, along with a 1-4 record and Hoffman’s two blown saves this season. This has to make us a little leary of San Diego, even if they have the likes of Jake Peavy or Chris Young on the bump.

It’s already affected Peavy, who refused to come out of the game in the ninth inning of his last start – a 4-1 Padres win over the Dodgers. He successfully convinced manager Bud Black to let him stay in the game, rather than bring in Hoffman, despite having already logged 116 pitches.

"It's tough," said Peavy, the unanimous winner of last season's NL Cy Young Award. "We have the best closer of all time down there, man. The guy's as good as it gets. Division opponent, save situation. It's tough to get back out there, but I appreciate Buddy showing the confidence in me. That's absolutely no disrespect for No. 51. I just appreciate the confidence that Buddy showed in me"

Translation – “Hoffman sucks.”

Along these same lines, you have to feel for Cleveland Indians phenom Fausto Carmona, who despite allowing just 1 run in 13 innings thus far this season has nothing to show for it, thanks to Joe Borowski. Monday’s no-contest was particularly painful as Borowski gave up a ninth-inning grand slam to give the game to the Angels. Once again, Cleveland, like San Diego, is a team with a great 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation and had one of the better bullpens last year. Better keep an eye out on this developing situation.

So, the bottom line is this: before you lay your money on any MLB team, be sure to do your homework on the bullpen. You’ll be glad you did!

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