Lenny Del Genio NBA Basketball Handicapping Article: San Antonio-New Orleans Series Preview

Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Horents
by Lenny Del Genio

Series Price: Spurs (-110), Hornets (-110)

Regular Season Results: Tied 2-2 SU/ATS

As the series odds indicate, this series is a virtual tossup. On one hand, you have the experience and championship pedigree of the San Antonio Spurs. On the other, you have the more talented New Orleans Hornets, led by MVP candidate Chris Paul. Both teams got to the second round with little difficulty, as both won in five games over the equally overrated Suns and Mavs, respectively. The Hornets hold the homecourt edge by virtue of winning the tiebreaker for the Southwest Division title and have opened as a 3.5-point favorite for Game One.

Obviously, to win this series San Antonio must win at least one game on the road. Take note that, including first round results, they are just 17-26 ATS away from home, including 3-11 if receiving six or less points from the oddsmaker. Don’t think for a second they’ll ever be getting more than that. The Hornets went 28-16 vs. the number at home this season, including 25-15 if favored. Against Dallas in the opening round, they went 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS, with the lone non-cover coming in backdoor fashion in the series clinching Game 5.

That being said, the second round is unchartered water for the Hornets. For the Spurs, it’s “old hat.” This is San Antonio’s eighth consecutive appearance in the second round. However, in each of its three previous title defenses, Greg Popovich’s team has failed to reach the Conference Finals.

Interestingly, New Orleans two wins over San Antonio during the regular season came in blowout fashion – by 24 on the road and 25 at home. The Spurs wins came by 12 (on the road) and nine (at home).

There are a couple of key matchups to keep your eye on here. One is the battle of point guards - Tony Parker vs. Chris Paul. Both embarrassed their counterparts in Game One. Parker was too quick for the Suns’ Steve Nash and went for 29.6 points/game, carrying over his strong play from last year’s NBA Finals. Paul made Jason Kidd look very old and ineffective, going for 24.6 and 12.0 assists.

Another key battle is Bruce Bowen vs. Peja Stojakovic. Paul is too quick for Bowen to guard, so the multi-time Defense Player of the Year draws the responsibility of guarding Stojakovic, who shot 61% (17 of 28) from behind the arc in Round One. If he repeats that kind of performance, San Antonio is in trouble.

The Hornets Jannero Pargo could be the X-Factor. He gave the Hornets 14.6 PPG off the bench in Round One.

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