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Nick Parsons NFL Handicapping Article: AFC East: An Early Look

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AFC East: An Early Look
by Nick Parsons

The calendar will soon be turning a page to the month of July and that means Football is right around the corner! Preseason NFL kicks off on the 3rd of August with the Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio. With that game only five weeks away it’s an ideal time to start taking a look at the assessments for the NFL teams for the upcoming 2008 season. Let’s kick things off this week with a look at the AFC East!

New England Patriots – Of course it’s impossible to improve on a 16-0 regular season but certainly the Patriots would like to quickly erase the bitter taste of February’s Super Bowl defeat at the hands of the Giants. However, no matter what the Pats would like to do, things are not shaping up quite so rosy for them heading into this season. The loss of CB Asante Samuel to the Eagles in offseason free agency is a significant defection. Although the Patriots brought in CB Fernando Bryant, there are some concerns about the impact this could have on their secondary until things settle in. The Patriots will be relying on quite a few draft picks on defense and while this is smart (from the standpoint that the Pats defense looked old and slow at times last season), it is also a concern because it will take awhile for these young players to grasp the systems and their role with the systems! The offense will still be rock solid for the Patriots, even though they lost Donte Stallworth and Kyle Brady, but this team was not near as powerful late in the season as they were early in the season last year when they were steamrolling teams. As a result, look for a bit of a carryover effect to bring some of those negative cycles right into this season. The AFC East will still be the Pats for the taking but there could be some line value in fading them.

Buffalo Bills – This young team is on the rise but so much of how 2008 plays out will depend on their QB situation. Defensively the Bills had a lot of work to get done too and a couple of key free-agent pick-ups should help in that regard. However, will the offense be able to score enough points to make up for a defense that is still trying to grow as inexperience continues to be an issue? Injuries hurt the Bills defense early last season so if they can stay away from early injury trouble this season, Buffalo could surprise some people and challenge for a wild card spot…but again, that QB spot will be a key development!

New York Jets – After surprising late in 2006 with a playoff push, the Jets quickly returned to reality last season! New York struggled to a 4-12 mark and 2008 looks like a very challenging season for the Jets. They did spend a lot in free agency but so often that does not equate to immediate results on the field. The Jets still have question marks in the secondary. Offensively the Jets do not have a real playmaker with great wheels to stretch the defenses. As a result, the Jets will once again struggle this season and it looks like another long season in New York. Of course this is made even worse for Jets fans since the Giants won it all last season. Jets are still at least another year away from challenging for a playoff spot.

Miami Dolphins – As with seeing some value in fading the Patriots at times this upcoming season, we should also see some value in playing on the Dolphins. Yes, we’re talking about the Miami team that went 1-15 last season. That actually is the key. Just like we know the Patriots have to take a step back after a 16-0 season, the Dolphins should take a step forward after a 1-15 season! What really helps Miami is having Bill Parcells at the top making the key decisions for this organization. While he’s not the head coach, the fact that he will have a lot of influence on coach Tony Sparano and how he’s running this team means that we can look for some marked improvement. The Dolphins only face two other playoff teams from 2007 besides the division rival Patriots. Also, Miami had a very strong draft and also added some key pieces in free agency. It will not be until 2009 that everything materializes down in south Florida. However, the fact is that the Dolphins will show some big improvement from last season’s team. This will be especially true once all the new players (through draft and free agency) are acclimated to their roles. Look for some line value with Miami as they will sneak up on some teams early in the year. The Dolphins pass defense was solid again last season and by shoring up the run defense in the offseason, Miami could be a decent club on that side of the ball this season. That will allow them to hang touch in games this season and they certainly should not be a push-over like they were at times last season.

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